Swine Fever Is Killing Vast Numbers Of Pigs In China

Swine Fever Is Killing Vast Numbers Of Pigs In China

An epidemic of African Swine Fever is infecting China’s hog farms, and the effects are spreading across the globe, because China is a superpower of pork. Half of the world’s pigs live in China — or at least they did before the epidemic began a year ago.

“Every day, we hear of more outbreaks,” says Christine McCracken, a senior analyst at RaboResearch, which is affiliated with the global financial firm Rabobank.

McCracken and her colleagues now estimate that by the end of 2019, China’s production of pork could be cut in half. “That’s roughly 300 million to 350 million pigs died in China, which is almost one fourth of the world’s pork supply,” she says. “It’s a huge number.” (This measures the reduction in pigs slaughtered annually, which is roughly twice the number of animals in China’s swine herd at any one time.)

The estimate, McCracken says, is based on information from her company’s clients in China, which include meat packers, companies that sell animal feed, and animal health experts.

African Swine Fever is not the same as “swine flu.” This disease is harmless to humans. It can spread through contaminated pork products or the clothes of people working with infected pigs. It does not travel through the air, but it’s long-lived and hard to control .

“They’ve had a hard time repopulating herds,” McCracken says. “It’s hard to decontaminate a facility in a short amount of time. Generally, it takes at least six months, sometimes three years, to do the same.”

Up to now, Chinese consumers still are finding enough pork to buy. McCracken says that’s mainly because many farmers slaughtered their herds early, due to fear of infection. In the past month or so, however, supplies have started to fall, and pork prices are now rising sharply in China.

In fact, people around the world are now starting to feel the effects.

With fewer pigs, China is importing less soy meal to feed them. That alone has been enough to push down global prices for soybeans, which means less money for farmers in Brazil and the U.S.

The effect on soybean prices may turn out to be low. According to a preliminary analysis by Amani Elobeid, an economist at Iowa State University, and Miguel Carriquiry, at the University of the Republic in Uruguay, a 30% cut in China’s pork production could reduce the price of soy meal by 3 to 5%. In an email to NPR, however, they noted that the analysis “is VERY preliminary and should be used with caution.”

The growing Chinese pork shortage is good news, though, for pork producers in the rest of the world: China is now starting to import more pork, driving up prices.

McCracken says the epidemic is still growing. “It’s really hard to see how this is going to end,” she says. “Though at some point there will just be better, more ‘biosecure’ facilities that have a few chance of getting the virus.”

African Swine Fever is present in wild pigs in Europe. European pork producers have managed to protect their commercial herds from infection through precautions, preventing any contaminated food or clothing from entering the facilities where pigs live.

Almost half the pigs in China, on the other hand, came from several small, backyard operations, which have been particularly hard-hit by the epidemic. If those farms can’t protect their animals from infection, they may perish.


Jeffrey Collins

The declining health of the country, epidemics, cures, and healthcare and Medicaid all find a place of importance at Instanews247. Jeffrey Collins writes news articles in this category so as to make sure that none of these minute details remain undercovers. By publishing his stories, in his own words, he feels “empowered beyond belief, and truly privileged”.